FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.59 – 145.25

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 80.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.1 ±12.7

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 26.25Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 14.93Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 32.41Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.1 ±12.2

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX 31.76Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 28.2Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 85.29Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6548, 9237, 9776

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6548, 9237, 9776

Auto

13.4 19%

Teleop

31.1 45%

Endgame

24.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6073, 5084, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6073, 5084, 5229

Auto

18.7 13%

Teleop

85.4 58%

Endgame

42.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.6pts

Blue projected score145.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: 50–169
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 135.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.1Season APEX224.1

13.4Auto18.7

31.1Teleop85.4

24.8Endgame42.9

137Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	10
teleop	74	20
endgame	14	14
foul	20	0
total	134	44

Result

Final score

134 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 80.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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