FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.42 – 193.53

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 81.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.7 ±13.3

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 47.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3098Waterford Robotics

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 22.26Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 38.1Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.5 ±9.9

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 85.32Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 74.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 33.62Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1322, 3098, 9697

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1322, 3098, 9697

Auto

22.3 20%

Teleop

73.7 68%

Endgame

13.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 68, 9757, 9207

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 9757, 9207

Auto

30.8 16%

Teleop

129.7 66%

Endgame

36.4 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.4pts

Blue projected score193.5pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.1
Score range: 84–217
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 464 vs event baseline 129.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.7Season APEX519.5

22.3Auto30.8

73.7Teleop129.7

13Endgame36.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	51
teleop	64	219
endgame	27	71
foul	0	0
total	123	341

Result

Final score

123 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 81.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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