FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

253.85 – 45.07

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.1 ±9.9

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 37.1Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 63.85Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 152.9Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.6 ±13.3

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX -9.45Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 42.79Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 11.73Rank 42Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6538, 862, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6538, 862, 494

Auto

40.7 16%

Teleop

151.2 60%

Endgame

62.0 24%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6073, 4130, 5532

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6073, 4130, 5532

Auto

15.3 35%

Teleop

6.2 14%

Endgame

22.7 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score253.9pts

Blue projected score45.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 208.8
Score range: 17–282
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.1Season APEX134.6

40.7Auto15.3

151.2Teleop6.2

62Endgame22.7

6Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	24
teleop	188	23
endgame	54	14
foul	0	0
total	290	61

Result

Final score

290 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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