FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.3 – 124.58

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484 ±11

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 96.88Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 136.21Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 37.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.7 ±11.2

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 54.54Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 58.32Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6071The Aluminators

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 11.72Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5660, 5114, 7202

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5660, 5114, 7202

Auto

52.8 19%

Teleop

168.1 62%

Endgame

51.9 19%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 10978, 6071

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 10978, 6071

Auto

22.5 18%

Teleop

68.8 55%

Endgame

33.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score270.3pts

Blue projected score124.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.7
Score range: 103–292
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 123.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484Season APEX273.7

52.8Auto22.5

168.1Teleop68.8

51.9Endgame33.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	19
teleop	193	45
endgame	95	16
foul	30	0
total	383	80

Result

Final score

383 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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