FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.31 – 118.34

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.2 ±12.7

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 63.57Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2145HAZMATS

Season APEX 69Event APEX 9.77Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 42.97Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.7 ±13.3

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 71.27Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 30.42Rank 42Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 16.65Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9759, 2145, 8193

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9759, 2145, 8193

Auto

24.3 21%

Teleop

63.3 54%

Endgame

29.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9776, 5532, 8385

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9776, 5532, 8385

Auto

37.2 32%

Teleop

60.1 51%

Endgame

19.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.3pts

Blue projected score118.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2
Score range: 93–141
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 128.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.2Season APEX158.7

24.3Auto37.2

63.3Teleop60.1

29Endgame19.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	40	12
endgame	28	3
foul	0	0
total	88	31

Result

Final score

88 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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