Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
70.36 – 154.51
26%74%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
51 – 125
Prediction correct · off by 24.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 169 ±12.7
Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 53.29Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 48.7Event APEX -7.19Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 24.26Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365 ±11.7
Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 23.94Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 6.48Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 124.09Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6538, 5282, 5603
45
/ 100 compatProjected
70.4 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 6538, 5282, 5603
Auto
28.9 41%
Teleop
35.1 50%
Endgame
6.3 9%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5084, 5517, 494
73
/ 100 compatProjected
154.5 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 5084, 5517, 494
Auto
27.8 18%
Teleop
93.0 60%
Endgame
33.7 22%
Strengths
- · 494 anchors offense
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.04
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score70.4pts
Blue projected score154.5pts
Red win probability26%
Event bonus sample198alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -84.1
- Score range
- 45–180
- Upset likelihood
- 26%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
169Season APEX365
28.9Auto27.8
35.1Teleop93
6.3Endgame33.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 25 | 10 |
| teleop | 25 | 64 |
| endgame | 1 | 51 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 51 | 125 |
Result
Final score
51 – 125
Prediction correct · off by 24.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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