FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.89 – 107.76

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 92.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.8 ±12.7

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 7.36Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 8.82Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 25.71Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±12.8

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 35.71Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6190Cybernetic Crusaders

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 45.91Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 26.14Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7202, 5234, 7772

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7202, 5234, 7772

Auto

10.0 26%

Teleop

24.0 63%

Endgame

3.8 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5229, 6190, 9759

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5229, 6190, 9759

Auto

17.5 16%

Teleop

71.7 66%

Endgame

19.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.9pts

Blue projected score107.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.9
Score range: 17–133
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 138.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.8Season APEX215.4

10Auto17.5

24Teleop71.7

3.8Endgame19.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	79	114
endgame	35	62
foul	0	0
total	144	190

Result

Final score

144 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 92.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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