FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.58 – 97.94

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324 ±11.7

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 34.59Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 128.55Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 28.44Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.8 ±12.7

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 20.96Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 55.41Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 21.57Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10690, 70, 9759

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10690, 70, 9759

Auto

35.0 18%

Teleop

107.4 57%

Endgame

47.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8193, 9237, 5084

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8193, 9237, 5084

Auto

25.6 27%

Teleop

44.0 46%

Endgame

26.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.6pts

Blue projected score97.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.6
Score range: 70–220
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 156.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324Season APEX184.8

35Auto25.6

107.4Teleop44

47.4Endgame26.2

17Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	72	31
endgame	43	33
foul	0	0
total	138	82

Result

Final score

138 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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