FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.09 – 312.79

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

388 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.1 ±11

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 140.07Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 19.3Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 181.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 656.3 ±8.7

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 39.09Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 152.82Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 120.88Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5660, 8193, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5660, 8193, 5114

Auto

77.8 23%

Teleop

189.6 57%

Endgame

64.9 20%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 494, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 494, 68

Auto

54.9 18%

Teleop

183.5 59%

Endgame

70.2 23%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score341.1pts

Blue projected score312.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.3
Score range: 285–369
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 706 vs event baseline 154.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.1Season APEX656.3

77.8Auto54.9

189.6Teleop183.5

64.9Endgame70.2

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	51
teleop	205	189
endgame	86	78
foul	10	0
total	388	318

Result

Final score

388 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Match videos

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