FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.85 – 321.55

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.1 ±11

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 141.51Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 20.09Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 182.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 656.3 ±8.7

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 42.06Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 155.52Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 123.97Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5660, 8193, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5660, 8193, 5114

Auto

77.5 23%

Teleop

186.5 56%

Endgame

69.9 21%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 494, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 494, 68

Auto

54.0 17%

Teleop

193.8 61%

Endgame

69.0 22%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score343.9pts

Blue projected score321.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.3
Score range: 294–372
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 562 vs event baseline 153.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.1Season APEX656.3

77.5Auto54

186.5Teleop193.8

69.9Endgame69

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	62
teleop	210	103
endgame	29	78
foul	0	0
total	319	243

Result

Final score

319 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 pts

Match videos

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