Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.38 – 233.47

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.6 ±11.6

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 67.46Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 37.08Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 111.84Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.4 ±11.2

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 114.82Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 101.6Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4377Boyne City Blaze

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 17.05Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10589, 9249, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10589, 9249, 3602

Auto

40.3 19%

Teleop

129.2 60%

Endgame

46.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4392, 5086, 4377

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4392, 5086, 4377

Auto

45.8 20%

Teleop

131.5 57%

Endgame

51.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.4pts

Blue projected score233.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.1
Score range: 185–264
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 172.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.6Season APEX454.4

40.3Auto45.8

129.2Teleop131.5

46.1Endgame51.5

27Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	35
teleop	85	66
endgame	33	82
foul	10	0
total	184	183

Result

Final score

184 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 41.4 pts

Match videos

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