Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.57 – 177.97

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

203 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 56.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.4 ±11.2

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 111.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 97.42Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4377Boyne City Blaze

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 12.38Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.9 ±11.1

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 47.63Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 75.01Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 55.33Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4392, 5086, 4377

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4392, 5086, 4377

Auto

41.6 19%

Teleop

120.8 55%

Endgame

56.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4375, 857, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4375, 857, 7250

Auto

33.3 19%

Teleop

96.6 56%

Endgame

41.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221.6pts

Blue projected score178pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.6
Score range: 147–253
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 169.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.4Season APEX395.9

41.6Auto33.3

120.8Teleop96.6

56.1Endgame41.9

54Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	31
teleop	109	138
endgame	28	89
foul	15	15
total	203	273

Result

Final score

203 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 56.8 pts

Match videos

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