Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.47 – 165.36

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.8 ±9.9

6079JET SET

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 12.23Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 194.3Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 196.94Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.6 ±11.2

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 68.96Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 57.12Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 39.28Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6079, 5193, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6079, 5193, 4391

Auto

77.6 19%

Teleop

213.5 54%

Endgame

107.9 27%

Strengths

· 4391 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3770, 9548, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3770, 9548, 6088

Auto

31.9 20%

Teleop

73.7 46%

Endgame

55.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score403.5pts

Blue projected score165.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 238.1
Score range: 135–433
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 167.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.8Season APEX365.6

77.6Auto31.9

213.5Teleop73.7

107.9Endgame55.9

43Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	27
teleop	145	45
endgame	73	49
foul	0	0
total	269	121

Result

Final score

269 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 pts

Match videos

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