Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.78 – 213.46

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.8 ±10.5

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 102.8Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10622Gwinn ModelBots

Season APEX 48Event APEX 37.67Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 97.31Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.6 ±11.6

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 65.9Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 36.42Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 111.14Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2586, 10622, 5505

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2586, 10622, 5505

Auto

38.6 16%

Teleop

143.2 60%

Endgame

56.5 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10589, 9249, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10589, 9249, 3602

Auto

42.5 20%

Teleop

124.4 59%

Endgame

44.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.8pts

Blue projected score213.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 182–269
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 172.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.8Season APEX294.6

38.6Auto42.5

143.2Teleop124.4

56.5Endgame44.5

88Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	37
teleop	167	118
endgame	71	72
foul	0	0
total	294	227

Result

Final score

294 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Match videos

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