Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
122.61 – 159.14
39%61%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
161 – 59
Prediction missed · off by 69.3 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.1 ±12.2
Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 55.71Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 48Event APEX 32.04Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 34.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.6 ±12.1
Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 34.86Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 68.57Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 55.71Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6637, 10622, 10595
66
/ 100 compatProjected
122.6 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 6637, 10622, 10595
Auto
29.1 24%
Teleop
68.2 56%
Endgame
25.3 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5486, 6079, 9773
77
/ 100 compatProjected
159.1 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 5486, 6079, 9773
Auto
30.9 20%
Teleop
84.3 53%
Endgame
42.6 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score122.6pts
Blue projected score159.1pts
Red win probability39%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 64%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -36.5
- Score range
- 99–183
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
266.1Season APEX182.6
29.1Auto30.9
68.2Teleop84.3
25.3Endgame42.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 11 |
| teleop | 118 | 26 |
| endgame | 29 | 22 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 161 | 59 |
Result
Final score
161 – 59
Prediction missed · off by 69.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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