Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.47 – 153.18

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±12.2

10622Gwinn ModelBots

Season APEX 48Event APEX 24.56Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 100.56Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 39.35Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.6 ±14.9

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 58.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 92.47Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5702Robotowatomi

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 2.31Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10622, 4392, 6569

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10622, 4392, 6569

Auto

34.1 21%

Teleop

89.8 54%

Endgame

42.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9548, 5505, 5702

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9548, 5505, 5702

Auto

30.4 20%

Teleop

87.8 57%

Endgame

34.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.5pts

Blue projected score153.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.3
Score range: 123–194
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 164.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.7Season APEX274.6

34.1Auto30.4

89.8Teleop87.8

42.4Endgame34.5

68Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	34
teleop	179	85
endgame	60	38
foul	0	10
total	279	167

Result

Final score

279 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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