Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.63 – 259.49

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223 ±13.3

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 34.91Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9674Trojan Power Robotics

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 84.77Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10605Techno Talons

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 10.95Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.6 ±12.4

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 193.31Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 19.18Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11466, 9674, 10605

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11466, 9674, 10605

Auto

25.3 20%

Teleop

71.1 55%

Endgame

32.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4391, 10595, 4835

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4391, 10595, 4835

Auto

47.9 19%

Teleop

140.5 55%

Endgame

64.8 26%

Strengths

· 4391 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.6pts

Blue projected score259.5pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.9
Score range: 101–289
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223Season APEX422.6

25.3Auto47.9

71.1Teleop140.5

32.3Endgame64.8

52Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	59
teleop	44	161
endgame	32	72
foul	0	0
total	115	292

Result

Final score

115 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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