Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

173.14 – 254.76

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.8 ±12.4

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 143.24Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 13.39Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4377Boyne City Blaze

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 16.51Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.1 ±11.2

4827Minerbotics

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 35.47Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 112.47Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 106.82Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8612, 6113, 4377

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8612, 6113, 4377

Auto

27.9 16%

Teleop

88.7 52%

Endgame

52.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4827, 2586, 6637

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4827, 2586, 6637

Auto

42.3 17%

Teleop

150.9 59%

Endgame

62.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.1pts

Blue projected score254.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.6
Score range: 143–285
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 164.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.8Season APEX441.1

27.9Auto42.3

88.7Teleop150.9

52.5Endgame62.3

44Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	28
teleop	104	158
endgame	36	40
foul	10	15
total	183	241

Result

Final score

183 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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