Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.98 – 131.68

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.6 ±12.2

5706Tahquamenon Phenomenon

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -6.56Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9674Trojan Power Robotics

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 82.15Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 31.39Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268 ±12.7

9773Cardinal Robotics

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 50.51Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10605Techno Talons

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 9.99Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 71.18Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5706, 9674, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

107 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5706, 9674, 6088

Auto

29.1 28%

Teleop

40.8 39%

Endgame

35.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9773, 10605, 857

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9773, 10605, 857

Auto

32.1 24%

Teleop

72.8 55%

Endgame

27.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107pts

Blue projected score131.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.7
Score range: 77–162
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.6Season APEX268

29.1Auto32.1

40.8Teleop72.8

35.4Endgame27.7

28Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	31
teleop	55	81
endgame	58	26
foul	0	0
total	134	138

Result

Final score

134 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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