Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

218.05 – 263.54

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±11.2

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 52.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 52.59Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 113.11Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.1 ±12.4

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 35.07Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 196.92Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9755Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 31.55Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10595, 7250, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10595, 7250, 3602

Auto

37.2 17%

Teleop

139.6 65%

Endgame

38.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9722, 5193, 9755

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9722, 5193, 9755

Auto

50.6 19%

Teleop

130.4 49%

Endgame

85.5 32%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score218.1pts

Blue projected score263.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.5
Score range: 188–294
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.1Season APEX411.1

37.2Auto50.6

139.6Teleop130.4

38.6Endgame85.5

36Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	47
teleop	65	130
endgame	35	51
foul	15	0
total	158	228

Result

Final score

158 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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