Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.84 – 54.73

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

61 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.1 ±12.7

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 23.86Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 52.08Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6558Aluminum Sting

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 18.9Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±13.3

6112Cyberstangs

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -8.03Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 42.06Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 20.7Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5486, 4375, 6558

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5486, 4375, 6558

Auto

24.0 27%

Teleop

44.9 50%

Endgame

20.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6112, 9249, 4835

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6112, 9249, 4835

Auto

17.1 30%

Teleop

23.2 41%

Endgame

16.6 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.8pts

Blue projected score54.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.1
Score range: 25–125
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 166.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.1Season APEX201.8

24Auto17.1

44.9Teleop23.2

20.7Endgame16.6

14Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	18
teleop	25	21
endgame	20	1
foul	0	0
total	61	40

Result

Final score

61 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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