Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.27 – 258.85

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 378

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186 ±13.9

9755Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 31.18Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6112Cyberstangs

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -2.93Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 53.02Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442 ±11.7

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 185.32Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 47.98Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4827Minerbotics

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 25.55Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9755, 6112, 10595

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9755, 6112, 10595

Auto

18.7 22%

Teleop

40.1 48%

Endgame

24.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5193, 7782, 4827

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5193, 7782, 4827

Auto

60.9 23%

Teleop

121.5 47%

Endgame

77.3 30%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.3pts

Blue projected score258.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -177.6
Score range: 51–289
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 166.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186Season APEX442

18.7Auto60.9

40.1Teleop121.5

24.8Endgame77.3

79Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	68
teleop	20	198
endgame	15	112
foul	0	0
total	55	378

Result

Final score

55 – 378

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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