Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.28 – 123.79

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373 ±12.4

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 86.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9755Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 26.4Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4377Boyne City Blaze

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 19.51Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.1 ±12.8

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 108.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9682Norway Robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX -5.79Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 21.56Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 9755, 4377

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5086, 9755, 4377

Auto

24.3 18%

Teleop

67.5 51%

Endgame

41.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4392, 9682, 4835

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4392, 9682, 4835

Auto

18.0 14%

Teleop

60.5 49%

Endgame

45.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.3pts

Blue projected score123.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.5
Score range: 94–162
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 168.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373Season APEX266.1

24.3Auto18

67.5Teleop60.5

41.6Endgame45.8

25Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	36
teleop	80	49
endgame	43	56
foul	0	0
total	156	141

Result

Final score

156 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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