Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.92 – 79.91

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.1 ±12.4

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 53.35Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6558Aluminum Sting

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 25.02Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 47.55Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±15.3

5702Robotowatomi

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 1.84Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 65.54Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 12.53Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3770, 6558, 10595

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3770, 6558, 10595

Auto

34.0 27%

Teleop

74.2 59%

Endgame

17.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5702, 857, 6113

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5702, 857, 6113

Auto

25.8 33%

Teleop

26.4 34%

Endgame

26.2 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.9pts

Blue projected score79.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46
Score range: 50–156
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 167.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.1Season APEX190.6

34Auto25.8

74.2Teleop26.4

17.4Endgame26.2

46Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	37
teleop	91	60
endgame	55	21
foul	0	0
total	192	118

Result

Final score

192 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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