Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.43 – 159.88

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.1 ±10.5

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 44.98Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 87.49Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 33.96Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.8 ±12.8

9733Gold Diggers

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 11.52Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4377Boyne City Blaze

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 24.86Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 123.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9249, 5086, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9249, 5086, 6088

Auto

37.4 22%

Teleop

91.3 54%

Endgame

39.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9733, 4377, 6637

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9733, 4377, 6637

Auto

27.1 18%

Teleop

93.7 62%

Endgame

29.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.4pts

Blue projected score159.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.6
Score range: 130–196
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 168.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.1Season APEX263.8

37.4Auto27.1

91.3Teleop93.7

39.7Endgame29.3

29Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	24
teleop	84	51
endgame	63	36
foul	0	0
total	181	111

Result

Final score

181 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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