Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.65 – 295.29

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±11.7

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 54.34Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10605Techno Talons

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 4.28Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10622Gwinn ModelBots

Season APEX 48Event APEX 7.03Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.7 ±10.5

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 68.23Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 122.96Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 104.1Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3770, 10605, 10622

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3770, 10605, 10622

Auto

24.7 36%

Teleop

29.6 43%

Endgame

14.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 857, 2586, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 857, 2586, 4392

Auto

51.6 17%

Teleop

153.7 52%

Endgame

89.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.7pts

Blue projected score295.3pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -229.6
Score range: 36–325
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.6Season APEX462.7

24.7Auto51.6

29.6Teleop153.7

14.3Endgame89.8

63Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	66
teleop	47	165
endgame	19	59
foul	0	0
total	92	290

Result

Final score

92 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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