Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.12 – 141.07

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.2 ±12.4

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 107.89Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 22.06Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 54.17Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.6 ±12.7

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 50.65Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 10.4Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 80.02Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2586, 4835, 9548

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2586, 4835, 9548

Auto

27.1 15%

Teleop

96.4 53%

Endgame

59.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10595, 5486, 857

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10595, 5486, 857

Auto

37.3 27%

Teleop

60.9 43%

Endgame

42.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.1pts

Blue projected score141.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.1
Score range: 109–216
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 178.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.2Season APEX229.6

27.1Auto37.3

96.4Teleop60.9

59.9Endgame42

89Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	32
teleop	96	53
endgame	72	37
foul	0	0
total	196	122

Result

Final score

196 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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