Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.81 – 32

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.4 ±12.4

6558Aluminum Sting

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 25.01Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 119.86Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9733Gold Diggers

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 8.94Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341 ±14

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 19.14Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 23.64Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5702Robotowatomi

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -10.78Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6558, 2586, 9733

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6558, 2586, 9733

Auto

33.4 23%

Teleop

74.8 51%

Endgame

38.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4375, 7250, 5702

/ 100 compat

Projected

32 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4375, 7250, 5702

Auto

15.5 70%

Teleop

3.2 14%

Endgame

3.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.8pts

Blue projected score32pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.8
Score range: 2–184
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 164.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.4Season APEX341

33.4Auto15.5

74.8Teleop3.2

38.8Endgame3.6

64Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	19
teleop	125	105
endgame	33	35
foul	0	0
total	191	159

Result

Final score

191 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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