Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 134.49

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174 ±13.9

10605Techno Talons

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX -0.39Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5706Tahquamenon Phenomenon

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -20.62Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 18.14Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.5 ±13.9

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 56.51Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9755Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 28.87Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 49.11Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10605, 5706, 6113

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10605, 5706, 6113

Auto

8.1 0%

Teleop

-7.4 100%

Endgame

-1.8 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9548, 9755, 6569

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9548, 9755, 6569

Auto

14.3 10%

Teleop

74.9 54%

Endgame

49.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-2.9pts

Blue projected score134.5pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.5
Score range: -30–164
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 166.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174Season APEX237.5

8.1Auto14.3

-7.4Teleop74.9

-1.8Endgame49

70Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	21
teleop	11	97
endgame	12	38
foul	0	0
total	35	156

Result

Final score

35 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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