Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

222.23 – 235.1

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.7 ±11

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 91.35Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 25.96Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 104.92Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.5 ±12.4

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 35.48Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9682Norway Robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX -11.3Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 210.92Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5505, 5486, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5505, 5486, 3602

Auto

30.8 14%

Teleop

130.7 60%

Endgame

57.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11466, 9682, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11466, 9682, 4391

Auto

37.3 17%

Teleop

139.7 62%

Endgame

48.3 21%

Strengths

· 4391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score222.2pts

Blue projected score235.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.9
Score range: 192–265
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 165.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.7Season APEX389.5

30.8Auto37.3

130.7Teleop139.7

57.6Endgame48.3

0Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	32
teleop	126	114
endgame	21	50
foul	0	0
total	203	196

Result

Final score

203 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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