Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.7 – 183.68

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.9 ±11.1

9674Trojan Power Robotics

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 77.11Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 54.44Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 113.15Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.8 ±12.4

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 54.17Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 90.35Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 39.16Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9674, 857, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9674, 857, 8612

Auto

53.1 22%

Teleop

113.1 46%

Endgame

79.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10595, 5086, 9722

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10595, 5086, 9722

Auto

36.4 20%

Teleop

112.5 60%

Endgame

37.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244.7pts

Blue projected score183.7pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61
Score range: 155–274
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 163.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.9Season APEX383.8

53.1Auto36.4

113.1Teleop112.5

79.5Endgame37.1

143Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	42
teleop	217	91
endgame	72	43
foul	0	0
total	352	176

Result

Final score

352 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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