Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.5 – 68.1

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.4 ±12.2

4827Minerbotics

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 26.36Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 104.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 47.12Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.9 ±11.6

6079JET SET

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 12.34Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10622Gwinn ModelBots

Season APEX 48Event APEX 11.82Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 43.94Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4827, 4392, 9249

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4827, 4392, 9249

Auto

38.2 21%

Teleop

85.5 48%

Endgame

55.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6079, 10622, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6079, 10622, 6088

Auto

15.5 22%

Teleop

22.3 32%

Endgame

32.9 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.5pts

Blue projected score68.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.4
Score range: 38–208
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.4Season APEX165.9

38.2Auto15.5

85.5Teleop22.3

55.5Endgame32.9

32Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	20
teleop	133	11
endgame	43	20
foul	0	0
total	204	51

Result

Final score

204 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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