Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.01 – 97.78

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.4 ±15.3

9674Trojan Power Robotics

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 71.46Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5702Robotowatomi

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -11.93Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 34.48Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.8 ±13.3

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 29.18Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4827Minerbotics

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 36.73Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9755Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 31.87Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9674, 5702, 9722

/ 100 compat

Projected

94 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9674, 5702, 9722

Auto

21.0 24%

Teleop

25.4 28%

Endgame

42.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4375, 4827, 9755

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4375, 4827, 9755

Auto

17.7 19%

Teleop

31.6 34%

Endgame

42.7 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94pts

Blue projected score97.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.8
Score range: 65–127
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 163.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.4Season APEX220.8

21Auto17.7

25.4Teleop31.6

42.8Endgame42.7

43Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	13
teleop	70	32
endgame	34	21
foul	0	0
total	144	66

Result

Final score

144 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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