Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.84 – 52.61

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.4 ±13.3

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 12.22Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9773Cardinal Robotics

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 62.5Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9733Gold Diggers

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 18.12Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±13.3

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 26.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX -7.53Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 33.77Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4835, 9773, 9733

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4835, 9773, 9733

Auto

24.9 28%

Teleop

57.1 65%

Endgame

6.5 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6569, 6113, 10589

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6569, 6113, 10589

Auto

18.3 31%

Teleop

35.2 60%

Endgame

4.7 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.8pts

Blue projected score52.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.2
Score range: 23–123
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 164.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.4Season APEX209.1

24.9Auto18.3

57.1Teleop35.2

6.5Endgame4.7

7Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	37
teleop	38	103
endgame	39	32
foul	0	5
total	98	177

Result

Final score

98 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 64.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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