Qualification · Qualification 34
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
274.5 – 174.77
78%22%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
185 – 228
Prediction missed · off by 71.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.4 ±10.7
Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 20.92Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 139.63Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 113.95Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.7 ±11.7
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 167.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -2.49Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 48Event APEX 10.08Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9682, 2586, 5086
81
/ 100 compatProjected
274.5 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 9682, 2586, 5086
Auto
45.6 17%
Teleop
138.4 51%
Endgame
88.4 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4391, 6112, 10622
71
/ 100 compatProjected
174.8 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4391, 6112, 10622
Auto
37.6 22%
Teleop
97.0 57%
Endgame
35.9 21%
Strengths
- · 4391 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score274.5pts
Blue projected score174.8pts
Red win probability78%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 99.7
- Score range
- 146–304
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
509.4Season APEX384.7
45.6Auto37.6
138.4Teleop97
88.4Endgame35.9
46Consistency114
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 36 | 48 |
| teleop | 108 | 135 |
| endgame | 41 | 45 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 185 | 228 |
Result
Final score
185 – 228
Prediction missed · off by 71.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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