Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.57 – 38.36

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

61 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.5 ±11.7

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 43.46Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 0.83Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 43.28Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232 ±13.3

5706Tahquamenon Phenomenon

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -36.3Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 37.37Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4827Minerbotics

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 37.29Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7250, 4835, 5486

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7250, 4835, 5486

Auto

12.4 14%

Teleop

44.9 52%

Endgame

29.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5706, 10589, 4827

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5706, 10589, 4827

Auto

16.4 43%

Teleop

10.1 27%

Endgame

11.6 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.6pts

Blue projected score38.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.2
Score range: 9–117
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 162.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.5Season APEX232

12.4Auto16.4

44.9Teleop10.1

29.4Endgame11.6

13Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	32	29
endgame	15	6
foul	0	0
total	61	49

Result

Final score

61 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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