Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.54 – 171.29

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.3 ±13.3

7713Norse Code

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 45.1Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 59.11Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 80.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.1 ±12.2

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 74.88Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 37.77Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9773Cardinal Robotics

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 58.64Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7713, 4375, 9548

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7713, 4375, 9548

Auto

29.7 17%

Teleop

85.6 49%

Endgame

59.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4392, 10595, 9773

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4392, 10595, 9773

Auto

34.2 20%

Teleop

100.0 58%

Endgame

39.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.5pts

Blue projected score171.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.3
Score range: 142–214
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.3Season APEX305.1

29.7Auto34.2

85.6Teleop100

59.1Endgame39.5

45Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	38
teleop	52	129
endgame	43	56
foul	0	0
total	117	223

Result

Final score

117 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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