Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.19 – 169.44

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.7 ±12.7

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 23.21Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 65.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 49.51Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±12.4

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 33.05Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6112Cyberstangs

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 8.75Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 127.64Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11466, 9249, 857

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11466, 9249, 857

Auto

30.4 22%

Teleop

75.9 54%

Endgame

34.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6569, 6112, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6569, 6112, 2586

Auto

41.5 24%

Teleop

93.1 53%

Endgame

40.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.2pts

Blue projected score169.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.2
Score range: 109–198
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 163.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.7Season APEX341.9

30.4Auto41.5

75.9Teleop93.1

34.9Endgame40.6

118Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	32
teleop	90	71
endgame	24	41
foul	0	0
total	153	144

Result

Final score

153 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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