Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.71 – 162.87

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.1 ±11.2

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX -33.45Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 71.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 121.56Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.4 ±14

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 121.85Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5702Robotowatomi

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -19.22Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10622Gwinn ModelBots

Season APEX 48Event APEX 60.24Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6113, 3602, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6113, 3602, 2586

Auto

23.9 15%

Teleop

63.4 40%

Endgame

72.1 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5193, 5702, 10622

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5193, 5702, 10622

Auto

30.5 19%

Teleop

96.7 60%

Endgame

34.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.7pts

Blue projected score162.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.2
Score range: 132–191
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 157.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.1Season APEX371.4

23.9Auto30.5

63.4Teleop96.7

72.1Endgame34

137Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	58
teleop	135	103
endgame	70	85
foul	0	0
total	243	246

Result

Final score

243 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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