Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.07 – 129.65

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 73.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±11.7

6079JET SET

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 2.24Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6558Aluminum Sting

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 31.82Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 69.01Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.3 ±12.4

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX -12.59Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 139.2Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 3.04Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6079, 6558, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6079, 6558, 7250

Auto

11.1 11%

Teleop

58.1 58%

Endgame

31.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4835, 5086, 11466

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4835, 5086, 11466

Auto

35.3 27%

Teleop

64.7 50%

Endgame

30.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.1pts

Blue projected score129.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.6
Score range: 74–159
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 158.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307Season APEX360.3

11.1Auto35.3

58.1Teleop64.7

31.6Endgame30.3

76Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	29
teleop	16	136
endgame	5	45
foul	0	0
total	36	210

Result

Final score

36 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 73.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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