Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.56 – 197.74

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.8 ±12.1

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 26.13Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9773Cardinal Robotics

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 52.98Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9674Trojan Power Robotics

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 54.45Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.5 ±12.2

9755Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -1.08Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 94.49Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 104.33Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7782, 9773, 9674

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7782, 9773, 9674

Auto

39.1 31%

Teleop

45.0 36%

Endgame

40.8 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9755, 5505, 9249

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9755, 5505, 9249

Auto

25.5 12%

Teleop

133.3 63%

Endgame

52.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.6pts

Blue projected score197.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.2
Score range: 106–226
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.8Season APEX274.5

39.1Auto25.5

45Teleop133.3

40.8Endgame52.6

100Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	23
teleop	118	95
endgame	69	63
foul	0	0
total	230	181

Result

Final score

230 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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