Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
213.83 – 7.97
93%7%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
303 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 72.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.7 ±10.5
Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 100.09Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 60.05Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 53.69Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.2 ±13.3
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 2.71Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 6.44Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 56.3Event APEX -1.18Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5193, 6088, 4375
84
/ 100 compatProjected
213.8 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 5193, 6088, 4375
Auto
41.1 21%
Teleop
91.0 46%
Endgame
63.7 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6569, 10605, 5486
10
/ 100 compatProjected
8 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 6569, 10605, 5486
Auto
5.4 87%
Teleop
-9.0 0%
Endgame
9.8 100%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.68
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score213.8pts
Blue projected score8pts
Red win probability93%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 205.9
- Score range
- -20–242
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
434.7Season APEX207.2
41.1Auto5.4
91Teleop-9
63.7Endgame9.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 24 |
| teleop | 169 | 27 |
| endgame | 74 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 303 | 63 |
Result
Final score
303 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 72.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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