Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.89 – 251.69

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.8 ±11.7

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 126.77Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 26.27Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 63.85Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.2 ±10.5

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 111.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 58.97Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9674Trojan Power Robotics

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 81.7Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8612, 11466, 7782

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8612, 11466, 7782

Auto

38.1 18%

Teleop

122.1 56%

Endgame

56.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4392, 7250, 9674

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4392, 7250, 9674

Auto

44.0 18%

Teleop

130.6 53%

Endgame

70.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.9pts

Blue projected score251.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.8
Score range: 185–284
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 178.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.8Season APEX456.2

38.1Auto44

122.1Teleop130.6

56.8Endgame70.8

75Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	22
teleop	91	79
endgame	34	84
foul	0	15
total	159	200

Result

Final score

159 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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