Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.4 – 138.1

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.4 ±13.9

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX -37.29Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 45.09Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6112Cyberstangs

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 1.6Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.1 ±12.8

4377Boyne City Blaze

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 33.42Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 43.15Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 61.53Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6113, 9722, 6112

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6113, 9722, 6112

Auto

6.3 34%

Teleop

-1.2 0%

Endgame

13.3 72%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4377, 4392, 9548

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4377, 4392, 9548

Auto

28.2 21%

Teleop

67.8 49%

Endgame

41.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score9.4pts

Blue projected score138.1pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.7
Score range: -19–166
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 156.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.4Season APEX311.1

6.3Auto28.2

-1.2Teleop67.8

13.3Endgame41.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	29
teleop	8	112
endgame	6	64
foul	0	0
total	30	205

Result

Final score

30 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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