Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
117.93 – 150.62
40%60%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
265 – 162
Prediction missed · off by 79.2 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.2 ±13.1
Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 45.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 16.83Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 56Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.8 ±12.1
Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 59.18Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 29.71Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 61.73Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8612, 5702, 2586
62
/ 100 compatProjected
117.9 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 8612, 5702, 2586
Auto
19.6 17%
Teleop
59.3 51%
Endgame
38.4 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9674, 10589, 9249
73
/ 100 compatProjected
150.6 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 9674, 10589, 9249
Auto
31.6 22%
Teleop
70.6 49%
Endgame
42.7 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.86
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score117.9pts
Blue projected score150.6pts
Red win probability40%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -32.7
- Score range
- 93–176
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
500.2Season APEX272.8
19.6Auto31.6
59.3Teleop70.6
38.4Endgame42.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 48 | 39 |
| teleop | 133 | 82 |
| endgame | 84 | 41 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 265 | 162 |
Result
Final score
265 – 162
Prediction missed · off by 79.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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