Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
199 – 117.27
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
365 – 77
Prediction correct · off by 103.1 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 654.6 ±9.3
Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 78.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 72.29Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 47.73Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 8.69Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 36.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 72.29Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5086, 4391, 5505
88
/ 100 compatProjected
199 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 5086, 4391, 5505
Auto
29.3 16%
Teleop
101.9 55%
Endgame
52.9 29%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6113, 3770, 4375
67
/ 100 compatProjected
117.3 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 6113, 3770, 4375
Auto
25.3 25%
Teleop
48.9 47%
Endgame
28.8 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.14
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score199pts
Blue projected score117.3pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 69%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 81.7
- Score range
- 93–223
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
654.6Season APEX303.9
29.3Auto25.3
101.9Teleop48.9
52.9Endgame28.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 66 | 26 |
| teleop | 219 | 11 |
| endgame | 80 | 40 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 365 | 77 |
Result
Final score
365 – 77
Prediction correct · off by 103.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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