FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.43 – 65.78

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.9 ±13.3

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 15.1Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 19.92Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 47.41Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±11.6

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 18.31Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 20.04Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 27.43Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3619, 6096, 7692

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3619, 6096, 7692

Auto

17.6 22%

Teleop

43.0 54%

Endgame

19.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4680, 9651, 7196

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4680, 9651, 7196

Auto

15.2 25%

Teleop

26.5 43%

Endgame

20.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.4pts

Blue projected score65.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.7
Score range: 55–93
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 59.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.9Season APEX237.1

17.6Auto15.2

43Teleop26.5

19.5Endgame20.3

51Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	21
teleop	30	47
endgame	33	18
foul	0	0
total	82	86

Result

Final score

82 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 10.3 pts

Match videos

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