FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.25 – 79.54

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.4 ±10.5

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 109.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 11.52Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 57.99Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.9 ±13.3

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 14.17Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 18.91Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 46.46Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3175, 5478, 123

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3175, 5478, 123

Auto

45.7 26%

Teleop

96.1 54%

Endgame

37.0 21%

Strengths

· 3175 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3619, 6096, 7692

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3619, 6096, 7692

Auto

18.5 23%

Teleop

42.9 54%

Endgame

17.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.3pts

Blue projected score79.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.7
Score range: 70–189
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 57.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.4Season APEX161.9

45.7Auto18.5

96.1Teleop42.9

37Endgame17.5

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	15
teleop	107	46
endgame	19	30
foul	0	10
total	186	101

Result

Final score

186 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 pts

Match videos

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