FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.14 – 39.02

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.6 ±11

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 7.43Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 27.76Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 16.95Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.5 ±13.3

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 10.69Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 26.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7865HODAbotics

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 1.57Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10607, 5577, 4838

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10607, 5577, 4838

Auto

7.2 14%

Teleop

28.1 54%

Endgame

17.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5756, 11490, 7865

/ 100 compat

Projected

39 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5756, 11490, 7865

Auto

9.7 25%

Teleop

15.6 40%

Endgame

13.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.1pts

Blue projected score39pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.1
Score range: 29–62
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 57.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.6Season APEX141.5

7.2Auto9.7

28.1Teleop15.6

17Endgame13.6

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	13
teleop	64	27
endgame	35	4
foul	0	0
total	109	44

Result

Final score

109 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Match videos

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