FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.87 – 83.36

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±11.6

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 15.05Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 22.34Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 28.48Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.9 ±13.3

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 15.99Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 19.45Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 47.92Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2673, 10577, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2673, 10577, 2224

Auto

15.4 24%

Teleop

26.8 43%

Endgame

20.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3619, 6096, 7692

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3619, 6096, 7692

Auto

19.9 24%

Teleop

47.1 57%

Endgame

15.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.9pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.5
Score range: 56–93
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 56.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.1Season APEX161.9

15.4Auto19.9

26.8Teleop47.1

20.8Endgame15.5

0Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	17
teleop	45	32
endgame	1	27
foul	0	0
total	64	76

Result

Final score

64 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 pts

Match videos

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